The UK is now in a severe recession, with the economy facing up to “a devastatingly bleak outlook”.
The COVID-19 pandemic has seen manufacturing output tumble to a record low; the hospitality and leisure sectors have faced unprecedented challenges with shops, bars, restaurants and gyms shut for large periods of 2020; and March and April saw UK construction suffer its largest slump on record. August recorded the biggest decrease in the number of people in employment since the financial crisis of 2008, and this is expected to worsen severely in October when the UK Government winds up its furlough scheme. Boris Johnson has warned businesses to prepare for a second COVID-19 wave.
But what does the economic downturn mean for people’s drinking and alcohol-related harm?
Well, it depends on who you ask. Speak to an economist, and they’ll likely tell you about the ‘income-effect’ hypothesis, which asserts that alcohol consumption decreases when we have less income to spend on such non-essential goods. There’s even some evidence that a declining economy forces us to redirect our resources into health-enhancing behaviours like exercise, healthy eating and preventative care.
Speak to a psychologist and they might quote the ‘uncovering’ hypothesis, whereby we might cut back on our heavy drinking because of the threat of job loss if we continue to drink in this way. Alternatively, they might argue the opposite, citing the ‘self-medication’ theory that we tend to drink more to cope with the psychological distress caused by money worries, unemployment or altered work situations.
The reality is that the actual impact of this economic downturn is impossible to predict, but much may rest on just how deep and prolonged the recession will be. The duration of time spent unemployed, for example, seems to be related to the risk of developing alcohol problems – the longer we are out of work, the greater our risk of drinking heavily.
It’s likely to affect some of us disproportionately: black and ethnic minority workers are overrepresented in the sectors hit worst by the economic crisis; young workers are most likely to have lost work due to furloughing, job losses and reductions in working hours; and older adults have been shown to increase alcohol use during times of financial stress.
But this isn’t inevitable. Now is the time to refocus our energies on how we can best reduce alcohol harms. In addition to the changes to policy which evidence suggests will make the biggest difference in reducing the harm caused by alcohol, there are some actions that are particularly essential during recession – for example:
- Ensuring that robust alcohol workplace policies become the norm, with employers creating an environment where alcohol issues are dealt with supportively and non-judgmentally.
- Recognising the importance Job Centres will play in offering tailored support to job seekers with complex needs.
- Tackling the ongoing stigma associated with heavy drinking that acts as a barrier to seeking help.
And when we do emerge on the other side of this recession, we must remember that the benefits of an economic revival will not necessarily be felt in all sections of society, especially those of us trapped in long-term unemployment and debt and who will be particularly vulnerable to new, or exacerbating existing, alcohol and related problems. It is therefore vital that alcohol treatment services are properly trained and adequately funded, both now and in the future, to be able to identify and support any of us who might need help in reducing our drinking.
